The Reasons Middle Eastern Investment Hasn't Transformed Newcastle into Title Contenders

The Newcastle manager is not prone to histrionics or grand public pronouncements. Based on his usual demeanor, his media briefing following the weekend's 3-1 defeat qualifies as a angry tirade. His side took an early lead but West Ham were ahead by half-time, as well as hitting the post and having a penalty overturned by VAR, prompting Howe to make a three substitutions at the half-time.

“That was the frustrating thing about the first half,” the coach said. “I almost could have taken anyone off and I think that was a reflection of where we were at that stage during the match and it’s very, very rare for me to have that impression. Actually, I cannot recall I have during my tenure as head coach of the club, so I felt the team required a significant change at half-time. That’s why I made those decisions.”

Three key players all came off at half-time and Newcastle managed to steady to an extent in the latter period, without ever really looking like they might fight back into the game against a side that had secured just a single victory of their previous nine fixtures. Given the congestion the centre of the table currently is, with a mere three-point gap separating third from 11th, and nine points between second and 17th, a run of 12 points from 10 games has not placed the Magpies adrift but, similarly, they must not finish the season in 13th.

The Problem of Perception

The problem to an extent is one of perception. With the Saudi PIF, Newcastle possess the richest backers in the globe. The assumption at the time the Saudi fund bought a majority stake of the team in recent years was that it would have a transformative effect, similar to Roman Abramovich achieved at Stamford Bridge or Sheikh Mansour did at the Etihad. The difference is that those two investors took over prior to the advent of financial fair play regulations (while the ongoing charges against City relate to if they breached those guidelines after they were implemented).

Financial regulations limit the capacity of owners, however rich, to invest funds on their squads and therefore probably might have hindered every Middle Eastern attempt to raise the team to the level of Manchester City. However it wasn't necessary for Newcastle’s spending to have been so restrained as it has been; they could have invested further and remained within the threshold – or simply taken a relatively meagre Uefa penalty since their big problem is more with the continental than the domestic regulation.

Stadium Spending and Financial Regulations

Additionally, stadium development is excluded from PSR assessments; the easiest method to raise income to generate more PSR headroom would be to extend or redevelop the stadium. Given the site of St James’ Park, with protected structures on multiple sides, in reality that likely means building an entirely new stadium. There was talk in spring of potentially making the short move to Leazes Park – resistance from community organizations could surely have been surmounted with a commitment to create a replacement green space on the existing ground location – but there has been no movement on that proposal. There has been substantial retrenchment from the PIF on a variety of projects as it refocuses on domestic affairs; the approach to Newcastle seems completely in alignment with that change of approach.

Player Sales Saga

The star striker saga was arose from that tension. A bolder leadership could have framed his transfer as necessary to release capital for additional investment; instead there was a vain attempt to keep him. This resulted in the team started the campaign amid a feeling of frustration even with the acquisitions of Woltemade, Yoane Wissa, Jacob Ramsey, Malick Thiaw and Anthony Elanga. The start was mixed: a single victory in their first six games.

Yet it seemed a corner was reached. They secured five victories in six matches prior to the weekend, a run that included demolitions of a Belgian side and a Portuguese club in the Champions League. This explains the performance against the Hammers was such a shock. The problem perhaps is that the team's approach is very aggressive, high-energy; a slight drop-off in energy can have profound consequences. Maybe the pressure of domestic, European and cup competition, five fixtures in a fortnight, had got to them. The German forward featured in each of those games and looked especially fatigued.

The Nature of Contemporary Football

That’s the reality of modern football. Coaches must be prepared to make changes. The manager has been unfortunate that Wissa’s fitness issue has meant he is short of attacking options but, regardless of how reasonable the reasons, Sunday’s showing was unacceptable –particularly following taking the lead at a ground ready to turn on its own side.

Howe will hope it was merely a temporary setback, one of those days when everybody is below par simultaneously, but if the Magpies are to secure the Champions League next season, let alone one day mount an actual championship bid, they must not be as inconsistent as they have been.

Scott Cole
Scott Cole

A seasoned gambling analyst with over a decade of experience in the UK betting industry.

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