A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Each writes two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
